Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232020 201031 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.80    136.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     81.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.0  30.9  35.4  33.4  23.2  17.2  28.3  36.8  U  U  U  U  N  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  120.0 117.0 113.0 106.0 101.0  89.0  94.0 101.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  64.0  46.0  49.0  58.0  21.0  31.0  22.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  73.0  72.0  69.0  70.0  73.0  75.0  79.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0 -14.0 -21.0  N  N  N  N  N  N VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        2.1%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h       10.0%       20.3%       15.1%
 30kt / 24h        3.0%        6.7%        4.9%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%        6.7%        4.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        3.9%        2.0%
 45kt / 36h        6.6%       28.9%       17.7%
 55kt / 36h        3.5%       10.5%        7.0%
 55kt / 48h       27.6%       22.3%       25.0%
 70kt / 48h       18.4%       16.5%       17.5%
 65kt / 72h       49.5%       42.1%       45.8%