Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232020 201101 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70    134.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     77.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.0  39.0  36.3  30.8  23.4  24.6  25.2  36.4  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  121.0  89.0  79.0  74.0  71.0  69.0  70.0  74.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    68.0  63.0  64.0  82.0  62.0  13.0  30.0  36.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  75.0  75.0  76.0  75.0  78.0  77.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0  17.0  13.0  10.0   4.0  -3.0 -24.0 -20.0  U  U  U  U  N  N VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        1.6%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        7.7%       16.3%       12.0%
 30kt / 24h        2.1%        4.9%        3.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        4.9%        2.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.0%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        4.7%       23.6%       14.2%
 55kt / 36h        2.0%        7.7%        4.9%
 55kt / 48h       15.2%       13.5%       14.4%
 70kt / 48h        6.6%        7.6%        7.1%
 65kt / 72h       25.5%       25.1%       25.3%