Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232020 201101 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90    131.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     59.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    138.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.8  25.5  21.7  19.3  19.8  24.6  21.1  20.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   78.0  70.0  65.0  68.0  55.0  61.0  75.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    77.0  87.0  82.0  66.0  64.0  30.0  22.0 -31.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  67.0  66.0  67.0  66.0  57.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   6.0   3.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        1.6%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        9.2%       22.8%       16.0%
 30kt / 24h        3.2%        8.2%        5.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.9%        8.2%        5.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        6.6%        3.4%
 45kt / 36h        9.4%       32.6%       21.0%
 55kt / 36h        4.6%       13.0%        8.8%
 55kt / 48h       22.6%       21.1%       21.8%
 70kt / 48h       10.9%       13.7%       12.3%
 65kt / 72h       43.0%       34.7%       38.9%