Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232020 201102 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.10    127.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     91.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     80.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    156.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  14.8  16.5  18.5  19.1  22.6  21.8  24.2  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   69.0  67.0  68.0  69.0  69.0  63.0  63.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 132.0 134.3 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    92.0  69.0  22.0 -13.0 -10.0  -8.0  30.0  32.0  F  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  69.0  68.0  68.0  69.0  67.0  65.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   1.0  -1.0   0.0 -10.0  -5.0   0.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        5.7%        3.7%
 25kt / 24h       20.4%       48.4%       34.4%
 30kt / 24h        7.9%       30.2%       19.1%
 35kt / 24h        6.6%       30.2%       18.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%       22.1%       11.2%
 45kt / 36h       13.6%       58.7%       36.1%
 55kt / 36h        8.1%       38.2%       23.1%
 55kt / 48h       29.5%       37.0%       33.3%
 70kt / 48h       12.1%       32.5%       22.3%
 65kt / 72h       34.7%       51.1%       42.9%