Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232020 201102 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.80    127.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    137.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.5  15.8  16.3  14.3  21.1  20.2  26.8  34.3  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   64.0  55.0  56.0  50.0  62.0  60.0  64.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        137.0 134.6 134.6 137.0 140.0 140.0 137.0 137.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    68.0  22.0 -14.0  -5.0 -11.0  12.0  17.0  23.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  69.0  69.0  70.0  66.0  64.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -4.0  -2.0  -7.0 -12.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0  N  F  N  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        2.1%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        4.7%       22.6%       13.6%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        8.6%        5.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        8.6%        4.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        7.1%        3.6%
 45kt / 36h        5.0%       33.0%       19.0%
 55kt / 36h        3.5%       14.8%        9.1%
 55kt / 48h       20.3%       21.0%       20.6%
 70kt / 48h        8.9%       16.8%       12.8%
 65kt / 72h       28.0%       31.7%       29.9%