Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232020 201102 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30    127.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.8  12.9  15.8  17.6  22.6  26.7  21.8  25.2  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   59.0  50.0  53.0  54.0  62.0  69.0  61.0  81.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.1 122.9 127.3 132.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 134.3  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0  55.0  48.0  33.0  40.0  14.0   2.0 -29.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  72.0  69.0  69.0  69.0  67.0  66.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -6.0  -8.0  -8.0  -5.0   1.0  11.0   6.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.2%        4.8%        3.5%
 25kt / 24h       12.6%       32.7%       22.7%
 30kt / 24h        6.5%       14.6%       10.6%
 35kt / 24h        3.5%       14.6%        9.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%       14.0%        7.4%
 45kt / 36h       12.6%       46.1%       29.4%
 55kt / 36h        8.9%       25.3%       17.1%
 55kt / 48h       23.9%       16.1%       20.0%
 70kt / 48h       16.1%       23.3%       19.7%
 65kt / 72h       29.7%       37.5%       33.6%