Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232020 201102 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.90    127.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     45.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.3  16.7  17.5  18.6  28.2  21.5  28.3  32.5  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   58.0  65.0  60.0  63.0  72.0  78.0  84.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        127.0 127.0 129.3 129.3 130.0 130.0 130.0 120.1  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -11.0 -21.0 -14.0 -12.0  23.0  11.0  -1.0  -1.0  U VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  70.0  70.0  69.0  66.0  66.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -6.0  -5.0  -4.0   3.0  17.0  22.0  23.0  N  F  F  F  N  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.9%       12.1%        9.5%
 25kt / 24h       23.2%       50.6%       36.9%
 30kt / 24h       14.6%       33.7%       24.1%
 35kt / 24h       14.6%       33.7%       24.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%       30.4%       16.0%
 45kt / 36h       14.9%       57.1%       36.0%
 55kt / 36h       12.1%       38.9%       25.5%
 55kt / 48h       21.9%       29.6%       25.8%
 70kt / 48h       10.9%       26.8%       18.8%
 65kt / 72h       14.7%       27.7%       21.2%