Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232020 201103 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.90    127.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.6  16.4  14.9  16.3  21.1  22.0  21.9  26.8  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   72.0  65.0  64.0  63.0  69.0  62.0  68.0  29.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        127.0 129.3 129.3 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 124.6  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     4.0   3.0  -5.0   7.0  13.0   8.0 -19.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  66.0  63.0  61.0  61.0  59.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -5.0  -2.0   3.0   9.0  12.0  14.0  12.0  F  F  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        4.0%        2.7%
 25kt / 24h        9.4%       28.8%       19.1%
 30kt / 24h        5.1%       13.7%        9.4%
 35kt / 24h        3.4%       13.7%        8.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%       12.6%        6.5%
 45kt / 36h        9.0%       32.3%       20.6%
 55kt / 36h        6.0%       15.0%       10.5%
 55kt / 48h       19.0%       20.9%       20.0%
 70kt / 48h        9.4%       12.2%       10.8%
 65kt / 72h       22.1%       20.9%       21.5%