Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232020 201103 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.90    128.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.8  15.4  19.1  23.9  20.7  23.8  24.8  29.7  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   69.0  65.0  67.0  67.0  64.0  78.0  33.0  16.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        129.3 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 107.4 111.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0  -5.0   7.0  25.0   6.0   0.0  -3.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  66.0  64.0  62.0  64.0  63.0  61.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -1.0   3.0   2.0  10.0  12.0   9.0   3.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        3.8%        2.5%
 25kt / 24h        7.5%       23.5%       15.5%
 30kt / 24h        4.0%        9.9%        7.0%
 35kt / 24h        2.5%        9.9%        6.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        9.4%        4.9%
 45kt / 36h        6.7%       26.4%       16.5%
 55kt / 36h        4.6%       11.0%        7.8%
 55kt / 48h       14.8%       17.3%       16.1%
 70kt / 48h        8.2%        9.0%        8.6%
 65kt / 72h       13.1%       12.3%       12.7%