Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232020 201103 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.80    128.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.7  17.7  20.3  17.7  16.4  18.2  20.5  21.8  N  F  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   67.0  66.0  72.0  71.0  50.0  55.0  24.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 129.3 127.0 122.3 124.6 101.6  31.7  F  F  F  N  N  N  N VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0   2.0  11.0  12.0   3.0  30.0  41.0 -31.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  63.0  60.0  60.0  57.0  53.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0   3.0   6.0   8.0   2.0   4.0  18.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        3.2%        2.2%
 25kt / 24h        7.4%       23.3%       15.3%
 30kt / 24h        3.9%        9.7%        6.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.8%        9.7%        5.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        9.1%        4.9%
 45kt / 36h        6.7%       26.8%       16.8%
 55kt / 36h        4.8%       11.5%        8.2%
 55kt / 48h       16.5%       17.1%       16.8%
 70kt / 48h       10.1%       10.4%       10.3%
 65kt / 72h       12.3%        9.0%       10.6%