Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232020 201104 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30    129.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     58.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  21.6  24.4  24.3  24.4  26.8  29.1  28.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   66.0  58.0  55.0  58.0  60.0  29.0  16.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        117.0 114.6 112.3 117.0 120.0 103.6  89.8  81.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -7.0   0.0   5.0   4.0 -19.0  21.0  21.0 -16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  58.0  57.0  55.0  54.0  53.0  55.0  55.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   4.0   8.0   5.0   5.0   0.0  -6.0 -11.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.5%       12.2%       11.4%
 25kt / 24h       20.7%       39.7%       30.2%
 30kt / 24h       13.3%       25.4%       19.4%
 35kt / 24h       13.3%       25.4%       19.4%
 40kt / 24h        2.7%       21.5%       12.1%
 45kt / 36h       11.9%       39.2%       25.6%
 55kt / 36h        7.9%       21.5%       14.7%
 55kt / 48h        9.3%       14.2%       11.7%
 70kt / 48h        4.3%        9.7%        7.0%
 65kt / 72h        2.0%        6.8%        4.4%