Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232020 201104 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20    128.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.0  29.7  28.7  29.6  30.0  31.4  34.6  41.6  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   67.0  54.0  48.0  58.0  41.0  25.0   6.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        109.6 107.3 107.3 114.3 114.3  94.4  83.0  81.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  12.0   0.0 -10.0  17.0  27.0  -2.0  26.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  54.0  52.0  52.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0  -6.0  -6.0  -9.0 -18.0 -29.0  N  N  N  F  F  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.2%        4.7%        4.9%
 25kt / 24h        8.2%       17.2%       12.7%
 30kt / 24h        5.4%        8.2%        6.8%
 35kt / 24h        3.8%        8.2%        6.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%        7.1%        4.2%
 45kt / 36h        4.4%       11.9%        8.1%
 55kt / 36h        2.2%        3.9%        3.0%
 55kt / 48h        2.2%        4.1%        3.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.9%        2.0%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%