Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232020 201104 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.00    128.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.7  28.4  30.4  28.0  27.2  30.1  38.6  41.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   60.0  58.0  53.0  54.0  44.0  14.0  11.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.1 105.1 109.6 112.0 105.1  77.7  74.3  79.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0   0.0 -10.0   6.0  25.0  19.0   5.0  37.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  49.0  48.0  48.0  44.0  44.0  48.0  54.0  U  U  U  U VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -6.0   2.0   0.0  -1.0 -16.0 -25.0  N  N  F  N  N  N VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.5%        2.6%        3.1%
 25kt / 24h        4.5%       10.3%        7.4%
 30kt / 24h        3.2%        3.9%        3.5%
 35kt / 24h        2.1%        3.9%        3.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%        3.7%        2.4%
 45kt / 36h        2.8%        7.0%        4.9%
 55kt / 36h        1.4%        2.0%        1.7%
 55kt / 48h        1.1%        1.9%        1.5%
 70kt / 48h        1.1%        1.0%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.4%        0.9%        0.6%