Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232020 201105 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20    126.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.8  27.8  26.7  25.2  26.7  27.0  37.3  29.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  52.0  53.0  50.0  31.0  10.0   4.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         97.9 104.6 104.6 104.6  91.5  79.8  76.2  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -9.0  -6.0   6.0  25.0  22.0  -7.0  24.0  32.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  50.0  48.0  47.0  44.0  42.0  48.0  56.0  U  U  U VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   6.0   8.0   0.0   0.0  -5.0  -6.0   0.0  N  N  U  N  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.1%        2.7%        3.4%
 25kt / 24h        5.0%       10.9%        8.0%
 30kt / 24h        3.9%        4.7%        4.3%
 35kt / 24h        2.3%        4.7%        3.5%
 40kt / 24h        2.3%        4.5%        3.4%
 45kt / 36h        2.9%        6.6%        4.7%
 55kt / 36h        1.4%        1.9%        1.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        1.7%        1.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        0.8%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%