Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232020 201105 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20    125.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.7  20.6  25.5  26.3  29.5  36.5  37.8  36.7  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   51.0  52.0  45.0  34.0  13.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        102.3 102.3 100.1  91.5  72.7  55.8  54.4  55.8  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -25.0 -23.0  13.0  31.0  -4.0  24.0  56.0  21.0 VU VU  U  N  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  46.0  49.0  45.0  47.0  51.0  52.0  56.0 VU VU  U VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.0   8.0   5.0   0.0  -3.0  -7.0  -6.0  -9.0  U  U  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.5%        4.5%        5.5%
 25kt / 24h        4.8%       10.6%        7.7%
 30kt / 24h        4.4%        5.0%        4.7%
 35kt / 24h        2.4%        5.0%        3.7%
 40kt / 24h        2.3%        5.0%        3.7%
 45kt / 36h        1.8%        4.3%        3.0%
 55kt / 36h        1.2%        1.3%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        0.5%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        0.4%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%