Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232020 201105 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.70    123.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.5  25.5  24.9  25.6  33.3  44.5  58.5  58.5  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  34.0  25.0  16.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.1  98.6  86.6  72.7  58.0  23.4   9.7   9.7  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  16.0  18.0  -3.0  32.0  46.0  43.0  43.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  43.0  42.0  41.0  43.0  44.0  44.0  44.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   4.0   5.0   2.0  -8.0 -10.0  -9.0  -9.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.0%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.3%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons