Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP242020 201108 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.50    115.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     82.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.2  31.9  33.1  28.6  34.3  33.4  27.8  28.2  N  U  U  N  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   46.0  39.0  23.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  20.0  20.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.1 120.7 106.6  83.6  55.0  99.4  96.0  97.7  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  30.0  28.0  48.0  77.0  27.0 -15.0 -39.0  N  N  U  N  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  77.0  75.0  74.0  71.0  74.0  72.0  69.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -4.0  -5.0  -5.0  -8.0 -17.0 -14.0 -20.0  N  F  F  F  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        3.7%        2.9%
 25kt / 24h        3.1%       10.5%        6.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        3.6%        2.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        3.6%        2.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.0%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        8.7%        4.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.2%        1.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        0.6%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.6%        2.0%        1.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        2.3%        1.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons