Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP242020 201111 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.70    105.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    10.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    10.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.9  26.5  27.1  25.7  23.1  17.9  14.3  15.1  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0  13.0  18.0  41.0  50.0  59.0  69.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         91.7  96.7 126.6 116.0 155.0 155.0 155.0 155.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -33.0 -18.0 -22.0 -20.0  -2.0 -30.0  -7.0   5.0 VU  U VU VU  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  68.0  68.0  65.0  60.0  59.0  55.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   9.0   0.0  -6.0  -5.0  -8.0  -9.0 -10.0  U  U  N  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        1.5%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        0.7%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        0.9%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        4.2%        8.8%        6.5%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons