Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252020 201109 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.70    130.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         9.3   8.3   9.3   7.7   9.8  13.8  21.0  22.5  F VF  F VF  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   82.0  88.0 100.0 102.0  81.0  72.0  73.0   0.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 134.3  62.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0  76.0  91.0  92.0 140.0 146.0 153.0  68.0  N  N  F  F VF VF VF  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  81.0  77.0  80.0  80.0  76.0  75.0  78.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   5.0   3.0  15.0  13.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.3%       18.8%       14.5%
 25kt / 24h       54.5%       77.4%       65.9%
 30kt / 24h       37.4%       64.2%       50.8%
 35kt / 24h       18.2%       64.2%       41.2%
 40kt / 24h       15.2%       64.2%       39.7%
 45kt / 36h       66.2%       89.9%       78.0%
 55kt / 36h       62.9%       82.9%       72.9%
 55kt / 48h       88.2%       88.2%       88.2%
 70kt / 48h       88.2%       85.0%       86.6%
 65kt / 72h       62.4%       81.6%       72.0%