Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252020 201109 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.70    129.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.8  18.8  14.5  13.7  17.6  20.2  26.4  32.8  F  N  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  117.0 116.0 111.0 108.0  95.0  83.0  69.0  48.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 134.3 127.3 125.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  53.0  69.0  68.0  95.0  73.0  55.0  40.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  79.0  80.0  81.0  77.0  72.0  77.0  80.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0  14.0   7.0   8.0   9.0  16.0  29.0  35.0  U  U  N  U  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.6%        9.2%        6.9%
 25kt / 24h       37.3%       59.4%       48.4%
 30kt / 24h       20.4%       35.1%       27.8%
 35kt / 24h       10.9%       35.1%       23.0%
 40kt / 24h        2.6%       34.4%       18.5%
 45kt / 36h       38.1%       72.1%       55.1%
 55kt / 36h       29.7%       53.2%       41.5%
 55kt / 48h       51.1%       57.7%       54.4%
 70kt / 48h       29.9%       50.2%       40.0%
 65kt / 72h       62.3%       51.1%       56.7%