Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252020 201110 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30    128.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.6  16.9  14.9  16.2  18.3  25.1  26.0  27.9  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  118.0 118.0 112.0 112.0  87.0  43.0   0.0  13.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  92.7  75.8 113.6  F  F  F  F  F  N  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    80.0  85.0  60.0  73.0  94.0  57.0  36.0  29.0  N  F  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  82.0  84.0  83.0  80.0  75.0  79.0  81.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0  17.0  13.0  16.0  17.0  30.0  31.0  31.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.4%       11.4%        8.9%
 25kt / 24h       46.8%       64.6%       55.7%
 30kt / 24h       26.7%       43.8%       35.2%
 35kt / 24h       14.5%       43.8%       29.1%
 40kt / 24h        4.4%       41.4%       22.9%
 45kt / 36h       39.8%       71.6%       55.7%
 55kt / 36h       29.1%       52.1%       40.6%
 55kt / 48h       51.0%       44.6%       47.8%
 70kt / 48h       24.7%       33.3%       29.0%
 65kt / 72h       28.9%       18.6%       23.8%