Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252020 201110 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.00    126.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     90.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     78.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.5  18.6  24.3  22.4  25.2  27.7  25.0  28.9  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   88.0  83.0  41.0  48.0  35.0  33.0  19.0   2.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 112.0 105.1  86.6 115.0  96.5  77.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    66.0  81.0  96.0  78.0  74.0  52.0  42.0  18.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  82.0  78.0  77.0  77.0  71.0  67.0  66.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0  16.0  21.0  16.0  24.0  16.0  16.0  18.0  U  U VU  U VU  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       50.6%       46.5%       48.6%
 25kt / 24h       68.7%       80.2%       74.5%
 30kt / 24h       54.2%       75.0%       64.6%
 35kt / 24h       52.8%       75.0%       63.9%
 40kt / 24h       24.3%       72.0%       48.1%
 45kt / 36h       32.0%       64.1%       48.0%
 55kt / 36h       22.0%       47.8%       34.9%
 55kt / 48h       27.1%       27.2%       27.1%
 70kt / 48h       14.3%       21.1%       17.7%
 65kt / 72h        4.2%       10.3%        7.3%