Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252020 201111 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.80    124.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     98.00            VF
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.0  15.7  21.3  30.0  32.1  29.7  33.8  32.3  F  F  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   65.0  48.0  24.0  62.0  24.0  15.0   3.0   2.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  82.3  43.0  87.0  84.6  67.4  56.2  47.7  N  N  U  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   105.0  69.0  30.0  38.0  54.0  22.0  11.0   8.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  79.0  72.0  71.0  66.0  63.0  63.0  58.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   4.0  11.0  20.0  11.0  11.0   5.0  -3.0  U  N  U VU  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       92.9%       70.9%       81.9%
 25kt / 24h       87.2%       80.2%       83.7%
 30kt / 24h       87.2%       80.2%       83.7%
 35kt / 24h       87.2%       80.2%       83.7%
 40kt / 24h       53.6%       77.5%       65.5%
 45kt / 36h       45.2%       51.9%       48.5%
 55kt / 36h       27.9%       35.1%       31.5%
 55kt / 48h       15.8%       16.6%       16.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%