Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252020 201111 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.60    122.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     87.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.6  23.8  28.3  23.8  22.4  26.1  28.3  31.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0  35.0  53.0  32.0  17.0   3.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         28.0  31.1  75.0  75.0  54.4  43.0  32.7 -24.9 VU VU  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    97.0  67.0  75.0  56.0  31.0  13.0   0.0   6.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  77.0  72.0  67.0  61.0  58.0  55.0  55.0  F  F  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.0  14.0  21.0  15.0  16.0  15.0   7.0  12.0  U  U VU  U  U  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       39.8%       12.4%       26.1%
 25kt / 24h       37.0%       31.2%       34.1%
 30kt / 24h       27.5%       27.2%       27.4%
 35kt / 24h       27.5%       27.2%       27.4%
 40kt / 24h       16.6%       19.9%       18.2%
 45kt / 36h       34.8%       19.9%       27.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%