Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252020 201111 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00    121.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     93.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.9  29.8  23.8  24.3  25.5  25.6  27.1  28.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  65.0  49.0  40.0  14.0   3.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         34.4  70.0  64.6  51.5  38.0  29.3  -3.3 -18.1 VU  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    67.0  75.0  56.0  38.0  20.0 -14.0   9.0  22.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  69.0  66.0  63.0  60.0  56.0  52.0  55.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.0  20.0  15.0  15.0   9.0  11.0  13.0   8.0  U VU  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.5%        3.5%        7.5%
 25kt / 24h       10.2%        9.2%        9.7%
 30kt / 24h        6.7%        6.0%        6.4%
 35kt / 24h        5.1%        6.0%        5.6%
 40kt / 24h        2.5%        3.3%        2.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons