Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252020 201112 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    119.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     94.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     45.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  16.4  18.6  20.1  22.2  26.2  35.0  48.2  N  F  N  N  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   46.0  24.0   7.0   2.0   7.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  79.6  62.4  53.0  41.1  42.7  -1.6 -27.9  N  N  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    94.0  71.0  53.0  35.0  63.0  64.0  50.0  -3.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  71.0  63.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  69.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   0.0   7.0  12.0  22.0  20.0  29.0  33.0  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.6%        5.3%        4.5%
 25kt / 24h        8.1%       13.3%       10.7%
 30kt / 24h        4.4%       10.5%        7.5%
 35kt / 24h        2.7%       10.5%        6.6%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%        7.1%        4.1%
 45kt / 36h        2.6%        3.0%        2.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%