Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252020 201112 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    118.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.0  19.2  18.5  18.8  21.0  20.2  24.2  18.8  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   58.0  43.0  28.0  17.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         89.3  80.1  73.6  63.5  49.3  26.7 -13.7  -9.3  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  14.0  26.0  26.0   6.0  16.0  10.0 -22.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  66.0  64.0  66.0  63.0  60.0  58.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   8.0  11.0  10.0  15.0   4.0   1.0  -1.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        1.2%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        4.0%        2.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        2.1%        1.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.1%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        2.0%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%