Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252020 201112 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    116.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     82.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     60.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.8  23.7  26.8  25.0  21.3  21.8  19.3  18.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  21.0   9.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.7  72.4  63.0  56.0  48.0  15.9   2.7  15.9  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  26.0  31.0  21.0  16.0  -7.0 -35.0 -24.0  U  U  N  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  62.0  60.0  60.0  57.0  54.0  51.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  10.0  17.0  11.0  -6.0   5.0   0.0   2.0  N  U  U  U  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.5%        3.3%        3.4%
 25kt / 24h        2.5%        6.0%        4.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        3.6%        2.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        3.6%        2.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        2.3%        1.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons