Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252020 201113 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.40    114.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.2  21.5  20.3  17.9  23.1  24.8  20.1  25.5  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0   6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         59.8  52.7  46.1  44.6  33.0  -4.2 -24.7 -20.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0  18.0  16.0   8.0 -17.0 -18.0 -20.0 -44.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  59.0  62.0  64.0  65.0  65.0  60.0  56.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  37.0  36.0  35.0  19.0  25.0  20.0  15.0  11.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.3%        2.6%        3.9%
 25kt / 24h        1.8%        4.3%        3.0%
 30kt / 24h        1.5%        2.6%        2.1%
 35kt / 24h        1.5%        2.6%        2.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        1.7%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons