Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252020 201113 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50    113.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     90.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     80.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.8  19.7  15.6  13.2  20.1  18.4  24.1  23.2  N  N  F  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   3.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         27.7  22.7  19.6  15.0 -30.4 -44.4 -44.1 -39.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  35.0  28.0  15.0  14.0  -3.0 -26.0 -39.0  N  N  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  57.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  56.0  50.0  41.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  26.0  25.0   9.0  10.0  12.0  18.0   8.0   5.0 VU VU  U  U  U VU  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       25.9%        0.0%       13.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons