Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252020 201114 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80    111.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     84.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     58.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  21.4  25.0  27.3  29.4  41.5  62.4  80.3  N  N  N  N  N VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   3.0  11.0  36.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         13.0  13.0  13.0   5.8 -20.0 -49.7 -56.9 -58.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0 -12.0 -15.0 -33.0 -22.0 -37.0 -14.0  56.0  U  U  U VU VU VU  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  58.0  60.0  61.0  59.0  57.0  53.0  54.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  35.0  19.0  27.0  29.0  30.0  27.0  93.0 116.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons