Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252020 201114 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40    109.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.9  28.4  27.8  23.6  24.2  24.0  24.0  24.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]          6.7 -19.6 -37.3 -43.5 -41.3 -31.3 -31.3 -31.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -8.0  -7.0  -7.0 -18.0 -40.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  55.0  52.0  47.0  47.0  39.0  39.0  39.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  31.0  31.0  30.0  21.0  14.0  11.0  11.0  11.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons