Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252020 201115 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10    107.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.9  28.6  28.6  31.8  41.2  60.0  65.4  71.9  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  15.0   8.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         14.8  11.7   1.6  -8.6 -20.3 -29.7 -31.0 -32.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0  -8.0 -16.0 -32.0 -18.0  27.0  65.0  90.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  57.0  56.0  57.0  56.0  56.0  54.0  59.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.0  29.0  24.0  24.0  37.0  87.0 137.0 128.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons