Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252020 201115 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70    106.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.3  27.5  27.5  27.5  27.5  27.5  27.5  27.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        -10.8 -19.7 -19.7 -19.7 -19.7 -19.7 -19.7 -19.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -13.0 -14.0 -14.0 -14.0 -14.0 -14.0 -14.0 -14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  35.0  28.0  28.0  28.0  28.0  28.0  28.0  28.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons