Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262020 201220 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.30    114.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.2  34.8  29.8  29.1  28.2  28.7  31.6  32.8  U  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  46.0  42.0  38.0  27.0  10.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 120.7 106.6  99.4  97.7  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    75.0  79.0  59.0  80.0  80.0  65.0  35.0  28.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  79.0  77.0  78.0  77.0  78.0  76.0  77.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.0  12.0  12.0  13.0   9.0   9.0   8.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        1.1%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        4.0%       10.5%        7.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.7%        2.6%        2.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        2.6%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        2.6%        1.6%
 45kt / 36h        2.5%       12.7%        7.6%
 55kt / 36h        1.0%        3.0%        2.0%
 55kt / 48h        2.3%        2.8%        2.5%
 70kt / 48h        1.6%        2.1%        1.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.4%        2.2%        1.3%