Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262020 201220 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.80    114.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.7  29.6  29.8  28.7  29.7  28.5  28.9  26.9  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  37.0  31.0  26.0  21.0   6.0   0.0  11.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 129.3 124.6 117.9 107.4  98.0  86.1  94.4  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    66.0  88.0  67.0  85.0  58.0  40.0  42.0  21.0  N  F  N  F  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  76.0  76.0  78.0  79.0  77.0  73.0  72.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.0  17.0  20.0  17.0  10.0   5.0   4.0   7.0 VU  U VU  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        0.9%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%        6.3%        3.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        1.5%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        1.5%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        1.5%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%        5.6%        3.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        1.1%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%