Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262020 201221 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.50    113.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.3  20.5  20.7  25.8  33.0  27.6  31.3  27.2  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  17.0  11.0   6.0   4.0   3.0   1.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 129.6 122.9 116.5 110.5  96.0  92.7 108.5  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    83.0  70.0  80.0  51.0  37.0   8.0  -2.0 -28.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  76.0  79.0  79.0  75.0  77.0  73.0  73.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.0  16.0  12.0  11.0   8.0   9.0   5.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        6.6%        3.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.7%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.6%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        5.6%        2.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%