Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262020 201221 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.20    112.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  23.4  28.6  30.8  34.8  32.6  31.5  24.2  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  17.0  16.0   7.0   0.0   0.0  14.0  40.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        125.7 117.4 113.5 108.0  96.1  94.6 111.6 134.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    70.0  80.0  51.0  51.0  24.0  15.0  -2.0 -31.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  74.0  74.0  76.0  74.0  68.0  66.0  59.0  F  N  N  F  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.0  13.0  11.0   9.0   8.0   6.0   5.0   4.0 VU  U  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.0%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        2.6%        1.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%