Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262020 201221 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.10    111.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.3  18.4  19.2  19.5  18.0  17.0  12.4  15.3  N  F  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        116.5 110.5  97.7  85.0  50.8  47.6  30.5  27.3  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    70.0  51.0  75.0  68.0  42.0  -6.0 -20.0 -29.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  72.0  69.0  67.0  67.0  62.0  56.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   7.0   6.0   7.0   7.0   5.0   4.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        5.0%        2.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        7.0%        3.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        2.5%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        4.5%        4.5%        4.5%
 70kt / 48h        4.5%        1.4%        2.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons