Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262020 201222 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.30    111.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.0  25.5  23.1  27.4  32.0  31.0  32.7  24.5  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  27.0  79.0  76.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        104.8  96.0  86.5  88.0 103.0 129.6 134.3 104.8  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    70.0  33.0   0.0 -18.0  -9.0 -31.0 -20.0   4.0  N  N  U  U  U VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  77.0  74.0  72.0  70.0  69.0  71.0  71.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0  14.0  11.0  10.0   6.0   4.0   4.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons