Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262020 201222 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      7.70    110.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.4  26.1  28.6  30.8  33.8  34.3  30.6  23.4  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  17.0  29.0   8.0  43.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        102.7  96.1  94.6  97.7 113.5 123.6  99.3 123.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0   0.0 -18.0 -16.0  -6.0 -43.0 -10.0 -15.0  N  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  75.0  73.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  73.0  68.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0   8.0   7.0   5.0   5.0   3.0   4.0   3.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons