Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262020 201222 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      7.60    109.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.8  26.4  32.6  39.5  35.5  36.8  24.3  26.3  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   0.0   9.0  25.0  63.0  63.0   0.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         97.7  94.6  97.7 106.2 123.6 111.6  65.7 140.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  -8.0  -9.0 -26.0 -13.0 -24.0  -1.0   0.0  N  U  U VU  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  71.0  70.0  70.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   6.0   3.0   4.0   3.0   2.0   5.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons