Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262020 201222 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.40    108.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.4  29.0  34.3  32.4  33.1  28.0  24.6  27.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   1.0   6.0  35.0  29.0  22.0  71.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]         91.5  91.5  96.1 101.0 130.1 125.7 115.5 139.3  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -8.0  -9.0 -25.0 -22.0 -25.0 -19.0  -3.0   4.0  U  U VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  73.0  71.0  69.0  74.0  75.0  70.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   3.0   4.0   5.0   4.0   6.0   4.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons