Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262020 201223 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.20    105.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     40.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.5  24.8  23.1  23.1  23.1  23.1  23.1  23.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  34.0  37.0  23.0  46.0  72.0  65.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        114.8 135.1 135.1 124.4 137.3 142.0 144.3 142.0  N  F  F  N  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0   2.0 -15.0 -15.0 -15.0 -15.0 -15.0 -15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  67.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   4.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.3%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        3.6%        1.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        1.1%        1.1%        1.1%
 70kt / 48h        1.1%        1.2%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h        3.7%        5.7%        4.7%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons