Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262020 201224 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.00    104.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     32.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  20.9  19.1  17.1  16.9  17.7  24.1  26.3  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   81.0  85.0  60.0   5.0  23.0  23.0  34.0  60.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        132.9 137.3 128.6 113.0 139.6 144.3 142.0 142.0  F  F  F  N  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -18.0   0.0  12.0  20.0   0.0  10.0   3.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  76.0  76.0  77.0  68.0  66.0  59.0  52.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   6.0   8.0  10.0   3.0   0.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        3.1%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        8.8%        4.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        2.2%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        4.8%        4.8%        4.8%
 70kt / 48h        4.8%        3.4%        4.1%
 65kt / 72h        9.6%       11.0%       10.3%