Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262020 201224 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      7.70    102.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     47.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  19.5  16.8  18.4  17.7  21.9  25.3  28.8  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  13.0   0.0  22.0  70.0  67.0  57.0  57.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        137.3 111.2  85.4 114.8 145.0 144.3 144.3 139.6  F  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  12.0  20.0  17.0  13.0   0.0  28.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  76.0  74.0  73.0  63.0  62.0  57.0  53.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   7.0   9.0   8.0  -1.0   0.0   3.0   5.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.8%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        9.6%        4.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        2.8%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        5.1%        5.1%        5.1%
 70kt / 48h        5.1%        4.3%        4.7%
 65kt / 72h       11.1%       12.2%       11.7%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons