Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262020 201224 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.10    101.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.0  16.3  18.3  18.0  20.7  25.0  22.6  26.2  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0   0.0  25.0  19.0  27.0  36.0  60.0  59.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        107.7  92.2 128.6 145.0 145.0 144.3 139.6 137.3  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  20.0  22.0   6.0  21.0  14.0  30.0  -1.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  73.0  71.0  70.0  64.0  59.0  55.0  56.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   8.0   5.0   2.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   6.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        5.5%        3.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.4%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.3%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%       19.2%        9.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        7.5%        4.0%
 55kt / 48h        5.3%        3.4%        4.3%
 70kt / 48h        3.4%        7.5%        5.4%
 65kt / 72h       10.8%       18.4%       14.6%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons