Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262020 201224 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.30    100.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.5  18.1  19.8  19.8  21.8  21.5  21.2  26.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0  39.0  58.0  72.0  73.0  63.0  53.0  49.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        104.3 137.3 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 139.6 132.9  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  24.0  27.0  37.0  34.0  35.0  12.0  20.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  69.0  66.0  68.0  66.0  58.0  55.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        9.5%        5.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.6%        1.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        2.4%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.9%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        1.9%       26.5%       14.2%
 55kt / 36h        1.6%       10.5%        6.0%
 55kt / 48h       13.2%        9.8%       11.5%
 70kt / 48h        9.8%       13.1%       11.4%
 65kt / 72h       27.0%       28.6%       27.8%