Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262020 201225 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.20     97.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  26.2  29.5  28.7  23.7  19.1  17.9  25.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  27.0  36.0  39.0  59.0  47.0  18.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 144.3 144.3 139.6 135.1 126.5 122.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  15.0  20.0  16.0  -1.0   8.0   8.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  59.0  51.0  49.0  45.0  45.0  43.0  43.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -4.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   4.0   7.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        7.3%        4.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%       12.7%        6.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        3.8%        2.0%
 55kt / 48h        3.8%        5.8%        4.8%
 70kt / 48h        2.8%        4.8%        3.8%
 65kt / 72h       13.0%       11.4%       12.2%