Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL012021 210522 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.20     62.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         8.8   8.7  15.4  12.1  21.8  29.0  76.8  76.8  F  F  F  F  N  N VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         32.7  33.4  32.7  32.1  27.3  22.7  13.7  13.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -17.0 -15.0  39.0   1.0 -53.0  -5.0   3.0   3.0  U  U  N  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  40.0  42.0  46.0  51.0  61.0  52.0  52.0 VU VU VU VU  U  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  13.0   7.0 -38.0 -38.0  N  N  N  N  U  N VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons